Which is that, in almost all countries, Covid-19 is far more serious and deadly in the elderly population. However, there is another enormously important factor at play here. Overall, if you get infected, it looks as though the chance of dying currently stands at one in seventy hundred and fifty. However, let’s leave aside country-to-country and genetic variability for now. Some people think that the indigenous population in Peru is at much higher risk than the surrounding ‘European’ population, due to genetic factors. Why is there so much variation? This is currently unknown. Read more Covid-19 death toll tops 1 MILLION worldwide as pandemic spikes in US, Brazil & Europe However, their IFR is going to end up in excess of 0.1 percent. How many people have been infected in Peru in total? Uncertain. Which is a population fatality rate of almost exactly 0.1 percent. The total population of Peru is 32 million, and there have been just over 32,000 deaths. On the other hand, the country with the highest overall death rate based on mortality per million is Peru. This extremely low rate is, currently, unexplained. Which provides an Infection Fatality Ratio of 0.00254 percent. This represents an ‘infected’ population of just under three million (2,796,107), and there had been 71 deaths. (This will be an underestimate of true infection numbers, as many people do not create antibodies). It was found that seroprevalence, the number of people showing antibodies, was 5.2 percent. A study was done where antibodies for Sars-Cov2 were taken between April and June 2020. In Kenya, for example, the most recent attempt to estimate the IFR showed an exceptionally low rate. Of course, figures will vary from country to country. Or, to turn this figure around, according to the WHO figures, if you become infected with Covid-19, there is a one-in-750 chance you will die. Which is significantly lower than the initially predicted one per cent. Also on rt.com ‘A terribly difficult and lonely death’: WHO laments 1 million Covid-related deaths worldwide but says virus can be suppressed If this is the case, calculating the current, rather than the estimated, IFR is pretty straightforward. Do we know how many people have been infected up to this point? If so, we can make a better guess at the likely IFR, and your risk of dying.ĭr Mike Ryan, the executive director of the World Health Organization’s health emergencies programme, recently stated the WHO has estimated that 750 million people have been infected worldwide. Perhaps a more important point to consider is this. I would imagine that 33 years might be stretching things a little far. I am not certain what the time limitation is before a pandemic could be considered to have ended.
At this rate, it would take 33 years to reach sixty million deaths. How long might it take to get to 61 million?Īt present, worldwide deaths are running at around 5,000 per day. Even with this reduced number, we are a long way short. Under this 80 percent model, we might expect to reach 61 million deaths (7.5bn x 0.8 x 0.1). Which means that we were not going to reach that figure of 76 million. Read more UK health secretary claims rise in Covid-19 cases is ‘very serious problem’ The Imperial College model suggested that about 80 percent of people would need to be infected before we reached ‘herd immunity.’ I prefer to call it community-wide immunity.
Having said this, no-one predicted that everyone could become infected. So far, there have been just over one million. Has this estimate proven accurate? If so, within a world population of between seven and eight billion, we would expect to suffer up to 76 million deaths. In short, they predicted that approximately one in a hundred people infected with the Sars-Cov2 virus would die. In the UK, the pandemic modellers at Imperial College London, the group with the greatest influence on Government policy, estimated the IFR at 0.9 percent. If we go back to the start of the pandemic, most of the world locked down based on a prediction that the Infection Fatality Rate (IFR) of Covid-19 would be in the region of one per cent. In this piece, I intend to establish a reasonably accurate estimate for the risk of dying of Covid-19 for the average healthy person under the age of sixty-five. The only thing to fear is our overreaction to it. But, for just about everyone else, it’s a relatively mild condition with a very low fatality rate.
Yes, coronavirus is a serious infection for the elderly and vulnerable.
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